Fiscal Stabilization in the United States: Lessons for Monetary Unions

The debate about the use of fiscal instruments for macroeconomic stabilization has regained prominence in the aftermath of the Great Recession, and its relevance has suddenly increased further, after the recent Covid-19 shock. The analysis of fiscal stabilization in the United States, a monetary union equipped with a common fiscal capacity, has often informed the literature on the European EMU and could serve as a reference for its possible future reforms. This paper expands that literature in three ways: first, by measuring stabilization not only as inter-state risk-sharing of asymmetric shocks, but also as intertemporal stabilization of common shocks;second, by doing this for specific items in the US federal budget, both on the revenue and on the expenditure side;and third, by also measuring the impact of the federal system of unemployment benefits and of its extension as a response to the Great Recession. Corporate and personal income tax, on the revenue side, and social security benefits and federal grants, on the spending side, are the most effective items. The US federal system of unemployment insurance provides great stabilization in the event of a large shock, in particular when enhanced by the discretionary program of extended benefits. These findings imply that a proper design of the budget can maximize its stabilization effect, when it helps bridging the gap between higher mobility of capital and lower mobility of labor, by collecting revenues based on the income of the most mobile factor (corporate income tax) and providing support to the income of the least mobile factor (social security).

Monetary-fiscal coordination: when, why and how?

Purpose This paper aims to revisit the theme of fiscal-monetary coordination in a general equilibrium setup that allows for unconventional monetary policy, monetary policy transmission and developing country characteristics. Design/methodology/approach This paper uses a calibrated new Keynesian dynamic stochastic general equilibrium (DSGE) model to study fiscal-monetary interaction. Findings Debt sits at the center of monetary-fiscal interaction. Under high-debt conditions, the inflation-output trade-off rises with an increase in the strictness with which monetary policy targets inflation, undermining the standard prescription of strict inflation targeting. At the same time, the transmission of monetary policy is also impeded, due to which unconventional monetary policy becomes more appropriate. The need for coordination among the policies gets enhanced in the presence of borrowing cost channel. While the presence of borrowing cost channel increases the need for policy coordination regardless of the debt situation, features like higher share of non-Ricardian households and weaker monetary policy transmission affect monetary-fiscal interaction to a greater extent under high-debt environment. Originality/value First, this paper uses inflation-output trade-off as a metric, to analyze fiscal-monetary interaction. Second, this paper considers the impact of developing country characteristics (such as a higher share of non-Ricardian households, impeded monetary policy transmission and supply constraints/borrowing cost channel) on fiscal-monetary interaction. Third, the DSGE model developed in this paper incorporates open market operations that could shed light on the role of unconventional monetary policy in the presence of high fiscal deficit and debt, which is particularly relevant in the current context of the COVID-19 pandemic. Fourth, the model also permits an investigation into monetary policy transmission under different debt regimes.

The macroeconomic effect of COVID-induced economic policy uncertainty in Nigeria: a DSGE approach

Purpose This study examined the macroeconomic effects of COVID-19-induced economic policy uncertainty (EPU) in Nigeria. The study considered the effects of three related shocks: EPU, COVID-19 and correlated economic policy uncertainty and COVID-19 shock. Design/methodology/approach First, the study presented VAR evidence that fiscal and monetary policy uncertainty depresses real output. Thereafter, a nonlinear DSGE model with second-moment fiscal and monetary policy shocks was solved using the third-order Taylor approximation method. Findings The authors found that EPU shock is negligible and expansionary. By contrast, COVID-19 shocks have strong contractionary effects on the economy. The combined shocks capturing the COVID-19-induced EPU shock were ultimately recessionary after an initial expansionary effect. The implication is that the COVID-19 pandemic-induced EPU adversely impacted macroeconomic outcomes in Nigeria in a non-trivial manner. Practical implications The result shows the importance of policies to cushion the effect of uncertain fiscal and monetary policy path in the aftermath of COVID-19. Originality/value The originality of the paper lies in examining the impact of COVID-19 induced EPU in the context of a developing economy using the DSGE methodology.